Håkan Nilsson
Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor at Institutionen för psykologi; Avdelningen för Perceptions- och kognitionspsykologi
- Telephone:
- +46 18 471 21 43
- E-mail:
- Hakan.Nilsson@psyk.uu.se
- Visiting address:
- Von Kraemers allé 1A och 1C
752 37 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Box 1225
751 42 UPPSALA
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Biography
This text is not available in English, therefore the Swedish version is shown.
Utbildning, tidigare anställningar och andra uppdrag
2013: Forskare, Institutionen för psykologi, Uppsala universitet (projektfinansierad)
2010: Post Doc, Institutionen för psykologi, Uppsala universitet (finansierad as Samhälsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Uppsala universitet)
2009: Post Doc, Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Swizerland (host: Professor Jörg Rieskamp)
2008: Fil. Dr. i psykologi, Uppsala universitet
2002: Pol. Mag. i statsvetenskap, Umeå universitet
2000: Fil. Kand. i psykologi, Umeå universitet
Forskning, undervisning och tredje uppgiften
Forskning
Min forskning fokuserar främst på att kontrastera modeller för hur människor lagrar och använder information. För ett (förhoppningsvis) konkret exempel, anta att en spelare funderar över om det är meningsfullt att satsa pengar på att Helsingborgs IF skall vinna en fotbollsmatch mot Örebro SK. I denna situation måste spelaren använda sig av kunskap om de två fotbollslagen (t.ex., hur mycket bättre är Helsingborgs IF?), kunskap om fotbollsmiljön (t.ex., hur troligt är det att hemmalaget vinner?) och kunskap om spelmiljön (t.ex., är oddset rimligt?). Spelaren måste dra fram denna kunskap ur minnet, väga samman den och sedan fatta ett beslut (satsa eller inte satsa) baserad på denna sammanvägning. Jag är intresserad av modeller som försöker fånga den kognitiva basen i denna beslutsprocess. Det vill säga modeller ämnade att förklara hur kunskap är lagrad, hur kunskap dras fram, hur kunskap bearbetas och hur beslut tas. Huvuddelen av mina publikationer berör hur den kognitiva basen för sannolikhetsbedömningar.
Undervisning
Jag undervisar inom kognitionspsykologi samt statistik och metod. Största delen av min undervisning involverar handledning av studentuppsatser på olika nivåer.
Publications
Selection of publications
- Den paradoxalaspelkonsumenten? Om påverkan vid satsningar på sportsspel med odds. (2014)
- Inferring Conjunctive Probabilities From Noisy Samples (2014)
- The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments (2014)
- Combo bets are more attractive than single bets. (2013)
- Exploring theoverestimation of conjunctive probabilities (2013)
- People systematically overestimate conjunctive probabilities. (2013)
- The role of ANS-acuity and numeracy for the accuracy of subjective probability judgments. (2013)
- Can bettors convert odds into probabilities? Three studies of how oddsin sports betting is perceived as probabilistic information. (2012)
- Reducing cognitive biases in probabilistic reasoning by the use of logarithm formats (2011)
- Are bets with the odds of 3.1 more likely than bets with the odds of 21/10? How odds in sports betting are perceived as probabilistic information. (2011)
- Can bettors convert odds into probabilities? (2011)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for models of decision under uncertainty. (2011)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2011)
- Making the Seemingly Impossible Appear Possible (2010)
- Probability theory (2009)
- Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluating football bets. (2009)
- The rationality of weighting and adding probabilities. (2009)
- The effects of monetary incentives on how conjunctive probabilities areassessed. (2009)
- Conjunctive probabilities and monetary incentives. (2009)
- Linda is not a bearded lady (2009)
- Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework (2008)
- Exemplars in the Mist (2008)
- Categorization vs. inference: Shift in attention or representation? (2005)
- The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability (2005)
- The cognitive substrate of subjective probability. (2005)
- From prototypes to exemplars: Representational shifts in a probability judgment task (2003)
- Where do probability judgments come from? Evidence for similarity–graded probability (2001)
Recent publications
- The similarity-updating model of probability judgment and belief revision (2021)
- Preference or Ability (2020)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2020)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2020)
- Modeling the decision-making in human driver overtaking (2020)
All publications
Articles
- The similarity-updating model of probability judgment and belief revision (2021)
- Preference or Ability (2020)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2020)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2020)
- Modeling the decision-making in human driver overtaking (2020)
- The decision paradoxes motivating Prospect Theory (2019)
- Examining the Integrity of Evaluations of Risky Prospects Using a Single-Stimuli Design (2017)
- Sequential and myopic (2016)
- Heuristics Can Produce Surprisingly Rational Probability Estimates (2016)
- Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? (2015)
- Inferring Conjunctive Probabilities From Noisy Samples (2014)
- The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments (2014)
- Exploring theoverestimation of conjunctive probabilities (2013)
- Reducing cognitive biases in probabilistic reasoning by the use of logarithm formats (2011)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory (2011)
- Making the Seemingly Impossible Appear Possible (2010)
- Probability theory (2009)
- Linda is not a bearded lady (2009)
- Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework (2008)
- Exemplars in the Mist (2008)
- The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability (2005)
- The cognitive substrate of subjective probability. (2005)
Books
- In Search of Prototypes and Feminist Bank-Tellers: Exploring the Representativeness Heuristic (2008)
Chapters
Conferences
- Combo bets are more attractive than single bets. (2013)
- People systematically overestimate conjunctive probabilities. (2013)
- The role of ANS-acuity and numeracy for the accuracy of subjective probability judgments. (2013)
- Can bettors convert odds into probabilities? Three studies of how oddsin sports betting is perceived as probabilistic information. (2012)
- Are bets with the odds of 3.1 more likely than bets with the odds of 21/10? How odds in sports betting are perceived as probabilistic information. (2011)
- Can bettors convert odds into probabilities? (2011)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for models of decision under uncertainty. (2011)
- Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for models of decision under uncertainty. (2011)
- Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluating football bets. (2009)
- The rationality of weighting and adding probabilities. (2009)
- The effects of monetary incentives on how conjunctive probabilities areassessed. (2009)
- Conjunctive probabilities and monetary incentives. (2009)
- Categorization vs. inference: Shift in attention or representation? (2005)
- From prototypes to exemplars: Representational shifts in a probability judgment task (2003)
- Where do probability judgments come from? Evidence for similarity–graded probability (2001)
